Head of Multi Asset
Craig joined Keyridge Asset Management in March 2004. He became Head of UK Equities in March 2010 and was appointed Head of Multi-Asset Funds in May 2018.
He previously managed income funds at Govett Investment Management Limited and prior to that worked at Deloitte Touche. Craig has a BSc in Mathematics from Warwick University. He is also a Chartered Accountant and a CFA Charterholder.
Each month, the Keyridge Multi-Asset desk will provide a candid look at the key market signals shaping our portfolio construction.
Our original thoughts for this month’s note lie in the bin. The invasion of Iran caught us – and markets – by surprise. Trying to predict the actions of a single individual is foolhardy. We set out our thoughts here, six days after the Supreme Leader of Iran met his end.
Firstly, it is interesting that the relative prices in the energy sector had already been trending upwards since the summer of 2025, over seven months ago. Furthermore, predicting how long the disruption to oil cargoes sailing through the Strait of Hormuz will last is hard. The impact on the price of oil (and importantly to Europe and the UK, natural gas, which nearly doubled in two days) is also hard. And the impact on inflation even more difficult to forecast. The reinvigorated oil price has, if anything, gone too far and we suspect a mild correction from here, even if the trend is up.
Bond markets have added around 0.15% to the yield of the ten-year US treasury, providing a simple measure of what the consensus impact on inflation might be. Everyone is guessing.
Focussing on the big picture
In times of great volatility, we try to focus on the big picture. We consider the noise caused by this attack to be mostly likely just that. We remain bullish on equities, and neutral on fixed income.
It was not just the energy sector that turned upwards last summer – metals and mining also lifted. We believe this is due to the next big capital expenditure cycle starting. The previous years were characterised by capital-light activity, with a heavy focus on software. The physical investments now needed in artificial intelligence and electric vehicle growth are significant.
In addition, the new world of distrust we have entered requires meaningful relocation of manufacturing capacity. Investments in power, computing, electrification and defence require copper, steel, and rare earths and hydrocarbons. The Iran attack changes little here.
As per last month’s note, we believe the peak in the tech trade has passed, and this dampens the US equity prognosis. Our consistent message to investors is to buy during panics, focusing on oversold assets (in absolute terms) and upward-trending assets (in relative terms). Accordingly, assets such as mining equities, regions dependent on oil imports (such as Japan), and healthcare equities are all piquing our interest.